Committing $500–700M of public capital to a mass-burn incinerator — while the ACM alternative needs $0 — forfeits ~$909M of combined fiscal benefit over 30 years from Phase Initial alone (ILLUSTRATIVE) — before any partnership is considered.

§1.1What This Report Measures

This EIR quantifies the difference between two futures for Anchorage's manufacturing-feedstock streams over a 30-year horizon.

• State A (Without Carbotura). The current disposal model continues. the Municipality of Anchorage feedstock flows to the Anchorage Regional Landfill (SWS-owned) at the current FWDC trajectory. Disposal cost escalates at the documented Alaska regional rate (~3.5%/yr, CPI+1pp). No new revenue offsets accrue. The $500–700M WTE capital-commitment fork persists.
• State B (With Carbotura). A 30-year CSA executes. ACM Phase Initial commissions Q2 2028. Beneficiation Fee replaces FWDC for committed streams. Circular Royalty™ begins 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payment and escalates +1pp/yr. Phasing scales 100 → 200 → 400 → 1,000 → 1,200 TPD over 60 months. Phase Expanded conditional on Tier 3 partnerships.

This report does not re-diagnose State A (Deployment Study's role) and does not re-define State B (Proposal's role). Its function is only the delta.

§1.2Decision Summary Table

§1.3Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation

Source: Deployment Study. Locked Registry values. No new diagnosis introduced.

§2.1Feedstock Volume and Disposition (Phase Initial)

§2.2State A Cost Structure

§2.3State A Cost Trajectory

Three documented mechanisms drive forward State A cost growth: (1) Rate escalation — SWS long-term rate schedule includes a 5% increase in 2026, with 2025 published commercial gates of $87.11/ton (ARL) and $101.00/ton (CTS) raised for 2026 to $95.36/ton and $110.25/ton respectively — a 5% base increase plus a new $4/ton Healthy Spaces surcharge under Assembly Ordinance 2025-101(S). ARL's in-Municipality commercial gate has risen from $60.00/ton in 2019, roughly 59% in seven years. (2) The $500–700M WTE capital fork — the proposed mass-burn incinerator (earliest operation 2030–2032) would put $500–700M of public capital plus bond debt-service into the rate base, with tipping fees required to cover both. (3) Aging biosolids infrastructure — the AWWU Asplund WWTF multiple-hearth biosolids incinerator is at end of life; without an alternative destination, replacement was put at ~$75M by the Municipality in 2026 and at up to ~$100M by AWWU's General Manager in 2019.

§2.4State A Environmental and Structural Position

• Net carbon position (State A): All committed the Municipality of Anchorage feedstock continues to landfill. Methane emissions from landfilled organics continue per Anchorage Regional Landfill operating profile.
• PFAS exposure: Industrial and biosolids streams continue to landfill or land-apply with no PFAS destruction. Federal regulation (2026–2027) may impose treatment or destination requirements that elevate State A cost trajectory above the +3.5%/yr baseline.
• Operator concentration: Solid Waste Services (SWS) is the sole disposal-system operator within the Municipality of Anchorage — ARL, transfer stations, and the MRF. Single-counterparty pricing exposure within Anchorage is structural and compounds with each annual escalation cycle.
• Capital exposure: $0 under the ACM path — versus $500–700M of public capital plus bond debt-service under the proposed WTE, all recovered through the rate base.

Source: Proposal EIR Input Block. No re-derivation.

§3.1Inherited Flags Declaration

Flags carried forward from the Proposal and Registry (disclosed above in the inherited-flags block): FWDC ESTIMATED · T0 ESTIMATED · the Municipality of Anchorage feedstock composition ESTIMATED · Tier 3 partnerships NOT YET COMMITTED · Phase Expanded conditional on inter-jurisdictional instruments not yet executed.

§3.2Deployment Configuration

§3.3Economic Terms

§3.5Timeline Anchoring

§3.6Phase Delta Map

State A infrastructure (grey/steel pins) versus State B Priority 1 ACM site (emerald square). The map shows why the spatial and logistic transition from State A to State B is a route-convergence, not a route-extension — all existing the Municipality of Anchorage feedstock flows already pass within 15 miles of the Priority 1 Glenn Highway Industrial Corridor site.

§4.1Three Delta Components

The State A → State B transition produces three independent fiscal components, each quantified separately:

1. Gross cost displacement — State A FWDC obligation that no longer accrues under State B (feedstock redirects to ACM rather than landfill).
2. Circular Royalty™ cash flow — New revenue inflow to the Municipal treasury. $0 Year 1 (13-month lag); rolling-monthly thereafter; escalating +1pp/yr.
3. Residual obligation — State A cost continuing during the construction window (T0 → Phase Initial COD) and for any non-committed streams.

§4.1Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table

§4.430-Year Gross Cost Displacement Table

the Municipality of Anchorage base load (Phase Initial only, no Tier 3 partnerships) — conservative base case. State A FWDC escalated at 3.5%/yr.

§4.530-Year Circular Royalty™ Table

Phase Initial only base case (the Municipality of Anchorage base load, 146,000 TPY held constant).

§4.6Three-Item Gross Fiscal Chart

§5.1Employment Delta

§5.2Environmental Delta (designed-for language)

§5.3PFAS Structural Delta

State A: Industrial and biosolids streams continue to landfill or land-apply with no PFAS destruction. Federal regulation (2026–2027) expected to impose treatment or destruction-efficiency requirements that elevate State A cost trajectory above the documented +3.5%/yr baseline.

State B: ACM (MCR) is designed to achieve high PFAS destruction efficiency on processable feedstock streams. Committing PFAS-bearing streams to ACM positions the Municipality of Anchorage ahead of forthcoming federal regulation. Designed-for performance basis; stream-specific PFAS destruction efficiency confirmation deferred to Deployment Study.

§5.4No-Fallback Analysis

Should State A continue and the regional siting window pass without the Municipality of Anchorage engagement:

1. The WTE fork consumes the capital budget for a generation. $500–700M of public capital plus debt service enters the rate base, tipping fees must cover both, and the facility still landfills ~10% ash — while burning material that ACM would convert to manufactured products with $0 public capital.
2. First-mover RCRA-eligible decision window closes. Other Alaska regional communities absorb available ACM siting capacity. Re-entry available but on later, less favorable terms.
3. Regional partnership coordination cycle restarts. Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs 18–24-month coordination cycle must begin from a later T0; Phase Expanded shifts proportionally.
4. PFAS regulatory exposure direct. Federal rule promulgation (2026–2027) imposes State A cost step-changes without a Royalty offset.

There is no "do nothing" scenario that preserves optionality at zero cost. Inaction has compounding cost.

§6.1Structured Risk Register

§6.2Feedstock Variability Sensitivity (±20%)

§6.3FWDC Sensitivity — Sign-Change Threshold

§6.4Royalty Escalator Sensitivity (0 / +1 / +2 pp)

§6.5Timeline Slippage Sensitivity

§7.1Binding Constraints

1. T0 anchor + 24-month construction. Phase Initial COD requires ~24 months from financing close. T0 = Q2 2026 places Phase Initial COD at Q2 2028. Each month of T0 slippage moves COD month-for-month.
2. Classification pathway. Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) is the classification basis of every engagement. First-mover communities secure positioning advantages.
3. Solid Waste Services (SWS) contract escalation cycle. Each annual escalation cycle compounds State A cost without offsetting Royalty inflow. Beginning the CSA before the WTE design/permitting phase locks further capital preserves the no-capital alternative.

§7.2Decision Window Table

§7.3Irreversibility Mechanism

§7.4Optionality Matrix

No new figures introduced. All values trace to §1–§7.

§8.1Fiscal Effects (Municipal Treasury)

§8.2Regional Economic Effects

Plus property tax base addition of $75M–$1.17B (phase-dependent capital improvement).

§8.3Environmental Effects

• Net carbon position: Net carbon negative across all committed feedstock under State B (designed-for); net carbon positive under State A.
• Landfill diversion: ~100% of committed streams under State B (designed-for); 0% under State A.
• PFAS structural exposure: Material reduction under State B for industrial and biosolids streams; unchanged under State A.

§8.4Structural Effects

• Operator concentration: Solid Waste Services (SWS) dominance persists under State A; partially offset under State B as committed feedstock redirects to ACM.
• Capital exposure: $0 to the Municipality under State B vs. $500–700M WTE capital + debt service under the incinerator path.
• Federal regulatory positioning: State B aligns with NAICS manufacturing classification (RPT-aligned); State A retains solid-waste disposal classification exposure.

§8.5Unresolved Data Gaps

State A baseline: Sourced from Deployment Study (Section 1 of engagement). State B baseline: Sourced from Proposal EIR Input Block (Section 2 of engagement).

FWDC derivation: Per Deployment Study Appendix B (per-capita generation × Alaska regional median × phase-weighted blending). Beneficiation Fee formula: MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC − $5)) → FWDC ~$92 − $5 = $87 → floor applies → $100/ton Year 1; escalator 2.5%/yr.

Circular Royalty™ formula (Release 31): Royalty per ton, Year n = Multiplier(n) × Beneficiation Fee(n), where Multiplier(n) = 120% + (n−1)pp and Beneficiation Fee(n) = $100 × 1.025^(n−1) — the same year’s escalated fee. Payment begins 13 months after Carbotura’s receipt of the first Beneficiation Fee payment; rolling monthly. All per locked Carbotura standard parameters.

Phase sizing: Architect directive — Phase Initial 400 TPD; configurations 400 / 800 / 1,200 TPD over 60 months from Phase Initial COD. Employment: Carbotura standard FTE-per-TPD ratios. Timeline: Carbotura standard deployment schedule (T0 + 24mo Phase Initial COD). Environmental: Designed-for basis per Carbotura standard ACM performance specifications.

Operator verification: Google Places lookup (April 2026); corroborated against municipal/borough solid waste department websites and Waste Connections, Inc. public filings (NYSE: WCN).

Full document-suite glossary in Deployment Study Appendix D. EIR-specific terms:

• Gross Cost Displacement — State A FWDC obligation that no longer accrues under State B because feedstock redirects to ACM. Displaces State A cost; does not flow to treasury as a revenue item.
• — A differential between two independently reported gross transactions: the Beneficiation Fee the community pays (outflow) and the Circular Royalty™ Carbotura pays (inflow), read alongside avoided disposal (cost displacement, not inflow). It is not a netted position and does not represent a single community obligation. Reader-derived from three gross items.
• Pre-Royalty Period — Months 1–12 (Year 1) of Phase Initial operations. TMC paid; $0 Royalty due to 13-month lag.
• Royalty Ramp Period — Months 13–24 (Year 2). Rolling monthly Royalty payments begin and ramp to full run-rate.
• Steady-State Period — Year 3 onward. Royalty exceeds TMC on a per-ton basis structurally.
• Delta Model — Comparative analytical framework quantifying State A → State B transition. Does not re-diagnose State A or re-define State B.

This EIR quantifies the State A → State B transition for the Municipality of Anchorage, Alaska over a 30-year horizon. All State A figures are sourced from the Deployment Study. All State B figures are sourced from the Proposal EIR Input Block. No new figures are introduced here. Each value is classified by confidence tier.

Confidence tiers: Locked = user-confirmed or contractually standard Verified = sourced to named public record Estimated = Carbotura-modeled with stated methodology Provisional = pre-Term Sheet-Study placeholder.