The 30-year CSA is a royalty-producing asset that replaces a waste liability on Anchorage's books.
Anchorage's manufacturing-feedstock streams — ~400 TPD of MSW, C&D residuals, industrial special, and biosolids — currently flow through Alaska Waste collection to the Solid Waste Services (SWS) Anchorage Regional Landfill ten miles north of Anchorage. The Municipality owns its entire disposal system — ARL, the Central Transfer Station, the Girdwood TS, and the MRF — and its published gates are already at $87.11/ton (ARL) and $101.00/ton (CTS), with a 5% increase scheduled for 2026. The Assembly has approved $8M in planning toward a $500–700M mass-burn incinerator (earliest operation 2030–2032). No regulatory closure order forces an external deadline; as of September 2024 ARL had consumed 39.5% of its 47.4M-cubic-yard design capacity, with 28.7M cubic yards remaining (MOA SWS 2026 Approved Utility Budget). The decision window is structural: first-mover communities secure available regional ACM siting capacity, and the 12–18 month build from CSA execution to commissioning means a Q2 2028 commissioning target requires authorization now.
The current system. the Municipality of Anchorage would pay approximately $13.4M annually for disposal of a 146,000-TPY base load at a blended FWDC of ~$92/ton Estimated, escalating at ~3.5%/yr. Over thirty years, status-quo disposal cost compounds to approximately $693M cumulative (ILLUSTRATIVE) — paid out, with no offsetting return.
The relationship. the Municipality of Anchorage becomes the manufacturing feedstock supplier to the ACM facility on the Glenn Highway corridor; Carbotura is the manufacturer that material stream transfers to under the CSA. The 30-year Circular Supply Agreement is a supply agreement, not a service contract or a procurement instrument. Carbotura funds 100% of capital under a Build-Own-Operate structure. Phase Initial 400 TPD is fully supportable from the Municipality of Anchorage feedstock alone; Stage 2 through Phase Expanded (600 → 1,200 TPD over 60 months) are independently negotiable additions with Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs partnerships optional and additive — not preconditions.
Commercial structure — the CSA:
Transport. The Municipality transports feedstock to the ACM facility under existing collection contracts — a routing swap from the current landfill destination to Carbotura's site. No new fleet, no new contracts, no new collection infrastructure.
Timeline alignment. T0 = Q2 2026 (engagement start). Phase Initial COD Q2 2028 (T0 + 24 months). First Circular Royalty™ payment Q3 2029 (Phase Initial COD + 13 months). Each six-month slip past the Q2 2026 Council authorization pushes Phase Initial COD month-for-month and reduces Year-2 Royalty receipts cumulatively across the CSA term.
The 30-year fiscal pattern resolves into three clearly defined periods:
Year 1 is negative because the $100/ton canonical-floor Beneficiation Fee sits above the ~$92/ton avoided gate cost and no Royalty has yet accrued. From Year 2 the Circular Royalty™ inverts the position and its widening spread compounds across the CSA term.
"Gross cost displacement and Circular Royalty™ cash flow are quantified separately.
"At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis."
"Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis."
+$215M (ILLUSTRATIVE). Combined with avoided disposal cost displacement, the 30-year combined fiscal benefit versus continuing the status-quo system is approximately +$909M for Phase Initial alone — and ESTIMATED +$2.7B (3× the Phase Initial basis) if Tier 3 partnerships materialize and Phase Expanded reaches full operations.
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial addressable feedstock | 400 TPD / 146,000 TPY | Verified — user intake |
| Phase Expanded design capacity | 1,200 TPD / 438,000 TPY | Verified — user intake |
| Current FWDC (blended Anchorage Bowl) | ~$92/ton planning basis | Estimated — conservative; below the Municipality’s own 2025 gates |
| Beneficiation Fee, Year 1 | $100/ton | Verified — user-confirmed |
| TMC escalator | 2.5%/yr | Carbotura standard |
| Gross cost displacement, Year 1 (the Municipality of Anchorage) | ~$13.43M annual | Estimated |
| Circular Royalty™ rate, Year 1 | 120% of contemporaneous TMC | Carbotura standard |
| Circular Royalty™ Year 1 payment | $0 — 13-month lag (pre-royalty period) | Locked formula |
| Royalty escalator | +1 percentage point/yr | Carbotura standard |
| Royalty payment lag | 13 months, rolling monthly | Locked formula |
| 30-yr combined fiscal benefit (Phase Initial only) | ~+$909M | Modeled |
| Capital obligation to the Municipality | $0 | BOO structure |
| Hard external regulatory deadline | None | Verified |
| Council authorization deadline | Q2 2026 | T0 + 0 (concurrent) |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2028 | T0 + 24mo |
| First Circular Royalty™ payment | Q3 2029 | Phase Initial COD + 13mo |
| Direct employment, Phase Initial → Phase Expanded | 100 → 300 direct FTE | Estimated |
| Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) | Manufacturing classification required — NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, or 331492. Federal basis: RCRA §1004(27) · 40 CFR §261.2(e). Both parties commit to the RPT pathway onto manufacturing NAICS. | Standing condition · MR §3 |
The basis of decision irreversibility is manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) — the classification basis under which Carbotura CSAs proceed. Each month that passes, more Alaska regional communities enter Carbotura engagement pipelines and absorb available regional ACM siting capacity.
If T0 slips past Q4 2026, Phase Initial COD moves into 2029, and the 60-month phase scaling pathway shifts proportionally — pushing Phase Expanded full operations from Q2 2033 into 2034 or later. Each six-month slip costs approximately $9M in Year-2 Royalty foregone at Phase Initial scale, and approximately $27M at Phase Expanded scale.
If the Tier 3 partnerships (Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs) are not coordinated concurrent with the Municipality of Anchorage CSA, the inter-jurisdictional 18–24-month coordination cycle restarts from a later T0 — Phase Expanded materializes years later than necessary, with proportional foregone Royalty and avoided-disposal benefit.
The Deployment Study runs 4–6 weeks and resolves: (a) FWDC verification across the Municipality of Anchorage streams via direct contract review, with verifications against City-supplied documentation; (b) Priority 1 / 2 / 3 site geotechnical and zoning assessment; (c) ADEC permit pre-application engagement; (d) Tier 3 partnership coordination instrument framework; (e) FAQ / public engagement materials. It commits no capital obligation to the City, produces the verified data set required for the LOI decision, and creates no exclusivity binding either party. $0 to Anchorage — Carbotura bears the cost.
The Deployment Study commits no capital obligation to the Municipality. It produces the verified data set required for CSA execution and creates no exclusivity binding either party.
Contact: info[at]carbotura.com
Source basis. Key data sources: US Census Bureau (2024 Municipality of Anchorage estimate); Alaska Dept. of Labor (2024–2055 projections); Municipality of Anchorage, Mat-Su Borough, and Kenai Peninsula Borough municipal solid waste department records (none are publicly traded entities); Alaska Waste (a Waste Connections, Inc. subsidiary) public business records and Waste Connections, Inc. filings (NYSE: WCN); Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (18 AAC 60, Alaska Solid Waste Management regulations); Google Places verification (April 2026). Financial projections: Carbotura Circular Advantage modeling (RC3 baseline, standard contractual parameters). Contact: info[at]carbotura.com
A single-page summary for decision-makers: what Anchorage is being asked to authorise, what it receives in return, and the deadline that governs the timetable.