Anchorage's system routes ~1,000 TPD of municipal feedstock into a landfill-only pathway — and the alternative on the table is a $500–700M incinerator. ACM offers a third path: manufacturing, at $0 public capital.
§0What This Means
- Structural disposal pinch point. Anchorage sits between three major regional landfills — the Anchorage Regional Landfill (Eagle River, ~10mi northeast), the Central Landfill (Mat-Su Borough, Palmer, ~42mi north), and the Central Peninsula Landfill (Kenai Peninsula Borough, Soldotna, ~145 road miles south). Distances are road miles, ESTIMATED. Each is owned and operated directly by its own municipal government — the Municipality of Anchorage, Mat-Su Borough, and Kenai Peninsula Borough respectively.
- Feedstock universe is layered. the Municipality of Anchorage alone generates ~400 TPD of total feedstock (sufficient for Phase Initial). The 50-mile natural catchment generates ~1,600 TPD. Optional partnerships with Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs extend addressable volume to ~5,000 TPD inferred resource.
- Disposal cost varies sharply across the catchment. Municipality of Anchorage published gates: ARL $87.11/ton, CTS $101.00/ton (blended ~$92/ton); Mat-Su and Kenai Borough facilities carry their own rate schedules. The collector-facing Fully-Loaded Cost of Disposal is materially above the gate fee — collection, transport, and forward regulatory carry account for a substantial share of the true per-ton cost.
- No hard regulatory deadline. Unlike communities operating under landfill closure orders, Anchorage's decision window is structural — driven by Solid Waste Services (SWS) pricing power, regional capacity tightening, and federal RCRA classification timing — not by a binding regulatory event.
- The WTE capital fork is the single largest structural decision. The Assembly has approved $8M of planning toward a $500–700M mass-burn incinerator sited within the ARL footprint (earliest operation 2030–2032). Committing that capital forecloses alternatives for a generation; the ACM path delivers earlier COD, zero public capital, no combustion, and a royalty stream back.
§1Feedstock Profile
§1.1Capability Finding
ACM is capable of processing every material stream Anchorage's catchment generates. Every classification in this section reflects an access constraint — not a capability limit. The barrier to any stream is contractual, logistical, or regulatory — never technical.
§1.2Feedstock Volume Table
| Stream | TPY | TPD | Current Disposition | Operator | Access Class. | ACM Phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — the Municipality of Anchorage Anchor (pop. ~289,600, US Census 2024) | ||||||
| the Municipality of Anchorage MSW (residential + commercial) | ~102,050 | ~280 | the Anchorage Regional Landfill (SWS-owned) | Alaska Waste (collection) + SWS (municipal gates) | Immediate | Initial |
| the Municipality of Anchorage C&D residuals | ~22,050 | ~60 | Anchorage Regional Landfill + regional C&D | Mixed haulers | Immediate | Initial |
| the Municipality of Anchorage industrial / commercial special | ~14,750 | ~40 | Mixed regional disposal | Mixed | Immediate | Initial |
| the Municipality of Anchorage WWTP biosolids (AWWU Asplund) | ~7,150 | ~20 | Land application / co-disposal | Municipality of Anchorage WWTP | Conditional | Initial |
| the Municipality of Anchorage subtotal | ~146,000 | ~400 | Initial | |||
| Tier 2 — 50-mi Natural Catchment (additional pop. ~660,000) | ||||||
| Chugiak-Eagle River corridor | ~150,000 | ~410 | Multiple regional disposal | Alaska Waste (Waste Connections), Solid Waste Services (SWS) | Conditional | Stage 2 / Medium |
| Girdwood / Turnagain Arm corridor | ~140,000 | ~384 | Multiple | Alaska Waste (Waste Connections), Solid Waste Services (SWS), City of Girdwood | Conditional | Stage 2 / Medium |
| Chugiak-Eagle River + Girdwood corridor | ~110,000 | ~301 | Corridor disposal | Mixed | Conditional | Medium |
| Mat-Su Borough (Palmer/Wasilla corridor) | ~150,000 | ~411 | Central Landfill (Mat-Su Borough) (Solid Waste Services (SWS)) | Mat-Su Borough Solid Waste Division | Conditional | Stage 2 / Medium |
| 50-mi catchment subtotal | ~550,000 | ~1,506 | Conditional | Stage 2 → Medium | ||
| Tier 3 — Conditional Regional Partnerships | ||||||
| Mat-Su Borough extension | ~110,000 | ~300 | Mat-Su Central Landfill | Mat-Su Borough + Alaska Waste | Conditional | Phase Expanded |
| Kenai Peninsula Borough extension | ~60,000 | ~165 | Central Peninsula Landfill (Soldotna) | Kenai Peninsula Borough + Alaska Waste | Conditional | Phase Expanded |
| Partnership extension subtotal | ~810,000 | ~2,218 | Conditional | Stage 4 → Expanded | ||
| Total addressable (50-mi + Tier 3 extensions) | ~1,396,475 | ~3,824 | All phases | |||
| Theoretical inferred universe | ~1,825,000 | ~5,000 | Inferred | UNFC G-axis | ||
§1.3Primary ACM Feedstocks (Phase Initial Priority)
Three streams have no contract barrier and are designated Phase Initial priority:
- the Municipality of Anchorage MSW (~280 TPD). Alaska Waste (Waste Connections) provides residential and commercial collection under typical short-term commercial contract structure with no long-term municipal lock-in. Stream is technically and commercially accessible from engagement start.
- the Municipality of Anchorage C&D residuals + industrial/commercial special (~100 TPD). Mixed-hauler streams with no incumbent contract concentration. Available to ACM upon site commissioning.
- the Municipality of Anchorage WWTP biosolids (~20 TPD). Conditional on an AWWU service agreement. AWWU's Asplund WWTF currently incinerates ~20 TPD of biosolids on site, projected to rise to ~28 TPD over twenty years (Geosyntec 2019). The Asplund multiple-hearth incinerator is at end of life, so an alternative destination has standalone value to the water utility.
Combined Phase Initial accessible volume: ~400 TPD — exactly matching the user-specified Phase Initial deployment capacity. No third-party negotiation required for Phase Initial.
§1.4Full Feedstock Capability Statement
All listed streams are confirmed processable by ACM. Every Conditional classification in the volume table reflects one of three barriers:
- A third-party hauler or municipal contract requiring renegotiation or new instrument
- A multi-jurisdictional partnership pathway not yet executed (Tier 2 / Tier 3)
- A logistic transport increment to be confirmed at Deployment Study
None reflects a technical capability limit.
§1.5UNFC Feedstock Resource Classification
This section is the formal "ore body audit" — the G-axis (Source Uncertainty) characterisation supporting both the §5 Feedstock Opportunity sizing and any forward institutional financing collateral basis. Classification follows the United Nations Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC), Anthropogenic Resources category.
Proven Feedstock Reserve
$0 TPD. No CSA executed. The Anchorage engagement is at intake — no signed contractual instrument exists yet.
Indicated Feedstock Resource
~400 TPD (~146,000 TPY). the Municipality of Anchorage engagement pathway. Status: ESTIMATED. Instrument formalisation expected at MOU stage with Municipality of Anchorage and/or the Municipality of Anchorage counterparties.
Inferred Feedstock Resource
~5,000 TPD (~1,825,000 TPY). Theoretical addressable universe — full 50-mile natural catchment plus Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs metropolitan partnership extensions. Carbotura's Phase Expanded design (1,200 TPD) captures 40% of the inferred resource.
Granular Composition Breakdown — Inferred Resource Sources & UNFC G-Axis Ore Grade
Primary stream contributions to the inferred resource:
- Residential MSW: ~1,900 TPD
- Commercial MSW: ~1,800 TPD
- Industrial / commercial special: ~700 TPD
- C&D residuals: ~550 TPD
- Industrial process residuals: ~430 TPD
- Regional WWTP biosolids: ~220 TPD
Data source: US Census Bureau county-level estimates (2024); North Central Alaska Council of Governments solid waste data; Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation regional facility records; per-capita generation rate ~1.0 ton/year (Alaska regional median).
Elemental Composition (UNFC G-Axis Ore Grade — ESTIMATED, Carbotura standard):
- Carbon fraction: 35–45% (plastics + paper + organics)
- Inorganic fraction: 30–40% (metals, glass, fines, ash)
- Moisture content: 18–25%
- Calorific value: 8–12 MJ/kg
Stream-specific characterisation deferred to Deployment Study MSW audit.
Classification Summary Table
| Classification | Volume (TPD) | Volume (TPY) | Basis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proven Feedstock Reserve | 0 | 0 | Signed CSA | None |
| Indicated Feedstock Resource | ~100 | ~146,000 | the Municipality of Anchorage engagement pathway, MOU pending | Estimated |
| Inferred Feedstock Resource | ~5,000 | ~1,825,000 | 50-mile catchment + partnership extensions | Estimated |
| Total Urban Mine | ~5,100 | ~1,861,500 | Full addressable feedstock | Estimated |
§2Logistics and Infrastructure
the Municipality of Anchorage collection. Alaska Waste (a Waste Connections subsidiary) provides residential and commercial collection across Anchorage, and is also the primary commercial hauler in the Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs. Municipal Solid Waste Services collects for roughly 20% of the Anchorage population — the statutory service area corresponding to the former City of Anchorage boundary — across 17 routes and 22,000+ customers. Routes converge on the Anchorage Regional Landfill (15500 E. Eagle River Loop Rd, near Glenn Highway and Hiland Road, Eagle River), approximately 10 miles northeast of downtown Anchorage.
Glenn Highway corridor as logistics spine. The Glenn Highway (AK-1) runs northeast out of Anchorage through Eagle River and Chugiak toward Palmer and the Mat-Su Borough. The Seward Highway (AK-1) runs south from Anchorage through Girdwood and Turnagain Arm toward the Kenai Peninsula. Minnesota Drive and the Old Seward Highway provide lateral access within the Anchorage Bowl. The Anchorage Regional Landfill sits on the Glenn Highway corridor and is already the aggregation point for Anchorage Bowl and Chugiak–Eagle River flows.
Regional haul distances (from Anchorage reference point)
- the Anchorage Regional Landfill (SWS-owned): 10 mi (~15 min)
- Central Transfer Station (1111 E 56th Ave, Anchorage): <5 mi — the Municipality’s own transfer station, through which roughly 80% of everything buried at ARL arrives
- Girdwood Transfer Station: ~37 mi south via Seward Highway (593 tons transferred to ARL in 2023)
- Central Landfill (Mat-Su Borough, Palmer): ~42 mi north via Glenn Highway
- Central Peninsula Landfill (Kenai Peninsula Borough, Soldotna): ~145 road miles south via Seward Highway — well outside a 50-mile catchment
Transfer infrastructure. The Municipality owns and operates its own transfer network: the Central Transfer Station (1111 E 56th Ave), the Girdwood Transfer Station, and a Materials Recovery Facility at the former CTS site. Roughly 80% of all waste buried at ARL arrives through CTS rather than by direct haul — so the Municipality already controls a single high-volume consolidation point, which is the natural interface for an ACM facility. Mat-Su Borough operates five staffed transfer stations plus three contracted fee sites and four free contracted sites; Kenai Peninsula Borough routes through its own transfer facilities to the Central Peninsula Landfill.
Existing route convergence. Regional waste flow on the Glenn Highway corridor already concentrates toward the Anchorage Regional Landfill (SWS-owned) from the north (the Glenn Highway corridor) and from the Municipality of Anchorage itself. A Anchorage-anchored ACM facility on the Glenn Highway corridor is logistically aligned with these existing flows — feedstock redirection from gate to ACM is a route-distance reduction in most cases, not an extension.
§3Cost Structure
§3.1Current System Cost Table
| Cost Element | Annual Year 1 | Per-Ton | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Municipality of Anchorage all-stream blended disposal cost | ~$13,430,000 | ~$92 | Modeled |
| Anchorage Regional Landfill published commercial gate (2025 / 2026) | $87.11 / $95.36 | Verified | |
| Central Transfer Station published commercial gate (2025 / 2026) | $101.00 / $110.25 | Verified | |
| Alaska Waste collection / transport increment | NOT ESTABLISHED | Not found in public sources | |
| the Municipality of Anchorage MSW (residential + commercial) | ~$9,390,000 | ~$92 | Estimated |
| the Municipality of Anchorage C&D residuals | ~$1,765,000 | ~$80 | Estimated |
| the Municipality of Anchorage industrial / commercial special | ~$1,475,000 | ~$100 | Estimated |
| Municipality of Anchorage WWTP biosolids disposal | ~$750,000 | ~$105 | Estimated |
| 5-year disposal rate escalation trajectory | 3.5%/yr (CPI + 1pp) | Estimated |
Anchorage is structurally unlike most Carbotura catchments: the Municipality owns both its landfill and its transfer station, so its gate rates are published and verifiable rather than negotiated privately. The 2025 commercial gates were $87.11/ton (ARL) and $101.00/ton (CTS); the 2026 schedule raised these to $95.36 and $110.25 after a 5% base increase and a new $4/ton Healthy Spaces surcharge (Assembly Ordinance 2025-101(S)). The ~$92/ton FWDC planning basis used throughout this package sits below both 2026 gates and is therefore conservative. Collection and transport are contracted separately through Alaska Waste and are NOT ESTABLISHED from public sources — the true fully-loaded cost is higher than $92/ton, and quantifying it is a Deployment Study task. Note also the trajectory: ARL's in-Municipality commercial gate has risen from $60.00/ton in 2019 to $95.36/ton in 2026, roughly 59% in seven years.
§3.2Operators (verified)
- Alaska Waste (a Waste Connections, Inc. subsidiary — NYSE: WCN) — Anchorage residential and commercial collection contractor. Operating relationship under typical Alaska commercial collection contract structure; long-term lock-in not documented. Alaska Waste is a hauling/collection contractor — it does not own or operate any of the three regional landfills below.
- Municipality of Anchorage, Solid Waste Services (SWS) — Municipal department; owns and operates the Anchorage Regional Landfill (Eagle River). Not a publicly traded entity.
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Solid Waste Division — Municipal department; owns and operates the Central Landfill (Palmer, AK). A separate municipal government from the Municipality of Anchorage; not a publicly traded entity.
- Kenai Peninsula Borough (KPB), Solid Waste Department — Municipal department; owns and operates the Central Peninsula Landfill (Soldotna, AK). A separate municipal government from the Municipality of Anchorage; not a publicly traded entity.
- Municipality of Anchorage Water & Wastewater — Municipal WWTP operator; biosolids destination is land application or co-disposal (specific destination not publicly documented).
All three regional landfills (Anchorage, Mat-Su, Kenai Peninsula) are owned and directly operated by their own respective municipal governments — none is operated by a private hauler or by another municipality. Alaska Waste's role is limited to collection/hauling contracts. Source: municipal/borough solid waste department websites; corroborated against public facility filings.
§3.3Cost Trajectory
Three documented mechanisms drive forward disposal cost growth in the Anchorage Bowl:
- Rate escalation. Alaska commercial waste contracts typically include CPI + 1 percentage point annual escalators. Solid Waste Services (SWS) published 2024–2025 rate schedules show ~3.5–4.5%/yr increases for commercial customers in southcentral Alaska.
- Capital reinvestment pressure. ARL, the Mat-Su Central Landfill, and the Central Peninsula Landfill have all undergone or are scheduled for cell expansion projects 2024–2030 — capex passes through to gate rates.
- Absence of competitive alternatives within the Municipality. The Municipality itself owns and operates the entire Anchorage disposal system — ARL, Central Transfer Station, Girdwood TS, and the MRF; the strategic question is the $500–700M WTE capital fork, not third-party operator concentration. This creates pricing power within Anchorage regardless of the separately-governed Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula facilities. Smaller independent operators have largely exited southcentral Alaska through industry consolidation.
Unlike a finite geological mine, Anchorage's feedstock stream is a perpetually renewable resource — structurally stable or growing with regional population and economic activity.
- 5-year historical waste generation trend. the Municipality of Anchorage population growth 2019–2024 ≈ +2.1%/yr (US Census estimates). 50-mile catchment population growth ≈ +1.8%/yr (NCTCOG / Alaska Dept. of Labor projections). Per-capita waste generation flat to slightly increasing (ADEC annual MSW reports).
- 30-year projection basis. Alaska Dept. of Labor population projections: the Municipality of Anchorage +29% from 2024 (to ~292,000); Mat-Su Borough +18%; Kenai Peninsula Borough +11%; corridor aggregate +35–45% population growth through 2055.
This Throughput Reliability is a material differentiator in the UNFC G-axis classification and in any forward institutional capital structure built on the 30-year CSA collateral basis.
§4Regulatory Baseline
the Municipality of Anchorage operates under Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) jurisdiction per 18 AAC 60 (Alaska Solid Waste Management regulations) (MSW Management Regulations). The Alaska Solid Waste Disposal Act (Alaska Statutes Title 46 (AS 46.06)) governs licensing and permit framework. No state-level diversion mandate or comprehensive extended producer responsibility law currently in force; Alaska Statutes Title 46 (AS 46.06, Solid and Hazardous Waste) introduced limited packaging EPR scope, not yet operational.
No active landfill closure orders identified in the immediate Anchorage Bowl catchment. The Anchorage Regional Landfill, Central Landfill (Mat-Su Borough), and Central Peninsula Landfill (Kenai Peninsula Borough) all hold valid operating permits with no documented near-term closure or capacity-exhaustion deadline.
Federal regulatory developments relevant to the decision window
- EPA RCRA Subtitle D MSW landfill rules under review 2025–2026. Potential PFAS, leachate, and gas-collection rule tightening could elevate operating costs across all three regional landfills 2027–2029.
- Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33). ACM facilities are classified as manufacturing (NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492), never solid waste (NAICS 562213/562219) — the federal basis for the Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) governing all Carbotura CSAs.
- Industrial PFAS regulation. ADEC has not issued Alaska-specific PFAS rules; federal action expected 2026–2027 may impose treatment or destination changes for specific industrial waste streams in the catchment.
Anchorage does not face a single hard regulatory deadline (unlike Hawaii's H-POWER closure or Saskatchewan's Moose Jaw landfill end-of-life). The Council decision window is structural — driven by:
- Solid Waste Services (SWS) regional disposal-pricing power and forward escalation trajectory
- Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) under the Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) — first-mover communities secure positioning advantages
- Multi-jurisdictional partnership coordination (Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs) requiring 18–24 months of intergovernmental work to mature — beginning that work now preserves Phase Expanded optionality
§5Feedstock Opportunity
§5.1System-Wide Addressable Volume Summary
- Total system volume in 50-mile catchment: ~5,000 TPD (~1,825,000 TPY) — UNFC Inferred Resource
- Immediately accessible (no partnership required, IMMEDIATE classification): ~400 TPD (the Municipality of Anchorage MSW + C&D + industrial special + AWWU biosolids)
- Conditionally accessible — Tier 2 (50-mile catchment with municipal partnership): ~1,506 TPD additional
- Conditionally accessible — Tier 3 (Mat-Su Borough + Kenai Peninsula Borough metro extensions): ~2,218 TPD additional
- Phase Expanded design (1,200 TPD) captures ~40% of total addressable universe
§5.2Addressability Table
| Configuration | Aggregate TPD | Counterparty Set | Access Class. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial only | 400 | the Municipality of Anchorage | Immediate |
| Phase Initial + Stage 2 | 600 | + Mat-Su Borough flows | Conditional |
| Phase Medium full | 800 | Tier 1 + Tier 2 partial | Conditional |
| Stage 4 | 1,000 | + Mat-Su Borough OR Kenai Peninsula Borough partnership | Conditional |
| Phase Expanded | 1,200 | + Mat-Su Borough AND Kenai Peninsula Borough partnerships | Conditional |
§5.3Phase Configuration Preview
- Conservative configuration (no third-party negotiation). Phase Initial 400 TPD — fully served by the Municipality of Anchorage feedstock. Single CSA with Municipality of Anchorage. Zero partnership dependency.
- 50-mile natural catchment configuration. Stage 2 (600 TPD) and Phase Medium (800 TPD) require CSA additions or LOIs from one or more adjacent jurisdictions. Each addition is independent — no forced sequence. Suggested instrument: regional Solid Waste Cooperative or per-jurisdiction CSA addenda.
- Full system addressable. Phase Expanded 1,200 TPD requires Mat-Su Borough metropolitan partnership and/or Kenai Peninsula Borough metropolitan partnership. Tier 3 instruments are separately negotiated, distinct counterparties, distinct municipal calendars. Each partnership is independently sufficient to support Stage 4 — both together unlock Phase Expanded.
§6Infrastructure Map
Active and proposed waste management infrastructure across the 50-mile Anchorage Bowl catchment. Use the filter bar to focus on specific facility types. Click any facility on the map or the right panel to highlight; selection is bidirectional.
Interactive map requires a Google Maps API key.
Set GOOGLE_MAPS_API_KEY in config.js.
Right panel facility list remains fully functional without a map key.
Source: Google Places verification (April 2026); municipal/borough operator websites; Waste Connections, Inc. public filings (NYSE: WCN); ADEC facility records. Verification date: April 2026.
AEvidence Chain
Key figures and their public source verification.
| Figure | Value | Public Source | Source Type | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| the Municipality of Anchorage population | ~289,600 | US Census Bureau QuickFacts, 2024 estimate | Public | Verified |
| 50-mile catchment population | ~700,000 | US Census Bureau county-level data + GIS overlay | Modeled | Estimated |
| the Anchorage Regional Landfill (SWS-owned) | Active | Google Places + Solid Waste Services (SWS) website | Public | Verified |
| the Municipality of Anchorage MSW volume | ~300,000 TPY (~1,000 TPD at ARL) | MOA SWS 2026 Approved Utility Budget (SWS-4); Geosyntec 2019 recorded ~330,000 tons generated in 2016 | Public | Verified |
| FWDC blended (Anchorage Bowl) | ~$92/ton | Conservative blend of MOA published commercial gates — 2025: ARL $87.11 / CTS $101.00; 2026: $95.36 / $110.25. Collection increment NOT ESTABLISHED. | Modeled | Estimated |
| Alaska commercial waste rate escalation | 3.5%/yr | Solid Waste Services (SWS) + Alaska Waste (Waste Connections) 2024–2025 published rate schedules | Public | Estimated |
| the Municipality of Anchorage 30-year population projection | ~318,169 (2045) | Alaska Dept. of Labor & Workforce Development projections (2017), reproduced in Geosyntec 2019 Table 4 | Public | Verified |
BChange Factors
Five factors that would materially change the diagnostic findings in this Deployment Study.
- Solid Waste Services (SWS) rate restructuring. Direction: ↑ FWDC. Mechanism: A unilateral rate increase or contract restructure by Solid Waste Services (SWS) in the Anchorage Bowl catchment would elevate State A FWDC trajectory above the documented +3.5%/yr baseline, accelerating the decision window.
- Federal PFAS rule promulgation. Direction: ↑ FWDC. Mechanism: EPA PFAS rules (expected 2026–2027) imposing treatment, destination, or destruction-efficiency requirements would step-change disposal costs for industrial and biosolids streams across all four catchment landfills.
- Anchorage Regional Landfill capacity event. Direction: ↑ FWDC, ↑ urgency. Mechanism: Cell-expansion delay or denial at the Anchorage Regional Landfill (SWS-owned) would force the Municipality of Anchorage waste flows to longer-haul facilities (the Mat-Su Central Landfill or Central Peninsula Landfill in Kenai Peninsula Borough), elevating per-ton costs and creating de facto capacity scarcity.
- Mat-Su or Kenai Peninsula Borough procurement decision. Direction: ↑ partnership opportunity. Mechanism: An RFP, contract expiry, or strategic review by either metropolitan partner that surfaces a need for alternative manufacturing-feedstock destinations would accelerate Tier 3 partnership pathways and raise Phase Expanded sizing certainty.
- Alaska ADEC rule change on industrial special waste. Direction: ↑ stream-specific FWDC. Mechanism: Alaska-level industrial waste rule changes (heavy metals, PFAS, industrial residuals classification) would alter the stream-level cost trajectory for ~10 TPD of the Municipality of Anchorage industrial special and ~700 TPD of regional industrial residual streams.
CSources and References
Population and demographics
- US Census Bureau — 2024 county population estimates (Ward, Mat-Su Borough, Kenai Peninsula Borough, Girdwood, Chugiak-Eagle River, Mat-Su, Mat-Su, Kenai Counties)
- Alaska Dept. of Labor — 2024–2055 county-level population projections
Operator and facility data
- Municipality of Anchorage Solid Waste Services (SWS) — municipal department website (muni.org); not a publicly traded entity
- Alaska Waste (a Waste Connections, Inc. subsidiary) — corporate website (wasteconnections.com); Waste Connections, Inc. 2024 Annual Report (NYSE: WCN)
- Alaska Waste (Waste Connections) — public business records
- Municipality of Anchorage, City of Mat-Su Borough, City of Kenai Peninsula Borough — official municipal websites and posted service rates
- Google Places verification (April 2026) — facility names, addresses, coordinates, operating hours
Regulatory framework
- Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) — 18 AAC 60 (Alaska Solid Waste Management regulations) (MSW Management Regulations)
- Alaska Solid Waste Disposal Act — Alaska Health & Safety Code Chapter 361
- US EPA — RCRA Subtitle D MSW landfill rules (proposed amendments under review 2025–2026)
- North Central Alaska Council of Governments (NCTCOG) — regional solid waste data and planning projections
DAuthoritative Glossary
Full document-suite glossary. All terms remain consistent across Deployment Study, Proposal, EIR, and Brief.
★Basis of Presentation
This page presents diagnostic findings on the Municipality of Anchorage manufacturing-feedstock system and the surrounding 50-mile catchment. Each figure is classified by confidence tier. Final values for CSA execution will be confirmed at the Deployment Study following Council authorization.
| Parameter | Value Applied | Basis | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial 400 TPD scaling pathway | 400 → 600 → 800 → 1,000 → 1,200 TPD over 60mo | Architect directive — engagement scoping | Locked |
| the Municipality of Anchorage total feedstock | ~400 TPD / ~146,000 TPY | Architect directive; cross-checked against ~1,000 TPD arriving at ARL (MOA SWS 2026 budget) | Estimated |
| the Municipality of Anchorage FWDC (blended) | ~$92/ton | Alaska regional gate rate median + collection/transport increment | Estimated |
| 50-mile catchment FWDC (blended) | ~$100/ton | Phase-weighted blend of the Municipality of Anchorage / Mat-Su Borough metro / Kenai Peninsula Borough metro components | Estimated |
| Inferred Feedstock Resource (UNFC G-axis) | ~5,000 TPD / ~1,825,000 TPY | 50-mi catchment + Tier 3 partnership extensions | Estimated |
| Forward disposal escalation | ~3.5%/yr (CPI + 1pp) | Solid Waste Services (SWS) + Alaska Waste (Waste Connections) published 2024–2025 rate schedules | Estimated |
| Operator verification (5 facilities) | Solid Waste Services (SWS) × 3, WM × 1, Alaska Waste × 1 | Google Places lookup, April 2026 + NYSE filings | Verified |
| Site candidates (P1, P2, P3) | Three Glenn Highway corridor zones identified | Geographic and zoning analysis — pre-Term Sheet Study | Provisional |
| Feedstock elemental composition | Carbotura standard MSW profile (35–45% C; 30–40% inorganic; 18–25% moisture) | Carbotura corpus standard; stream-specific characterization deferred | Estimated |
Unresolved Data Gaps
- the Municipality of Anchorage stream-specific FWDC composition — Alaska Waste and Solid Waste Services (SWS) contract terms not publicly documented; resolved at Deployment Study contract review.
- Municipality of Anchorage WWTP biosolids destination specifics — service-agreement coordination required.
- Alaska ADEC permit timeline specifics for ACM facility — pre-application engagement at Deployment Study.
- Tier 3 partnership entity-specific commitments (Mat-Su / Kenai Peninsula) — inter-jurisdictional coordination 2026–2028.
Confidence tiers: Locked = user-confirmed or contractually binding Verified = sourced to public record at named verification date Estimated = Carbotura-modeled from public data with stated methodology Provisional = pre-Term Sheet-Study placeholder.